“I’ll huff and I’ll puff and i’ll huff some more” Kim Jong-Il

Well it looks like lil’ Kimmi has wee’d in his pants and is trying to find someone else to blame.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8071175.stm

This latest temper tantrum would be quite amusing if millions of north koreans weren’t starving because Kimmi and hi Pa wanted to play king of the Hill. Oh and there wasn’t all that arty sitting just north of the DMZ.

According to the folks at Global Security there are estimated to be 8000+ tubes and launchers near to the DMZ

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/army.htm

But I still wonder if North korea could actually prosecute a war at this moment in time, let alone if it could be successful. However you have to look at these two issues seperately.

1, Prosecuting a war is a time and energy intensive exercise. As the DPRK is effectively broke it is dubious as to how high it’s fuel stocks are. then there is the matter of the current state of it’s munitions. the recent flurry of short range missile launches may be seen as sabre rattling but also may be a serious attempt to randomly check if their missiles would launch if the button is pushed. Also given the DPRK’s fairly low-tech status it would want to wait until fairly good weather occured to maximise it’s forces abilities.

2, As for success well it depends what Kim is actually after. It is unlikely that he would go for a Gotterdamerung war of destruction. But maybe he feels that a limited war would bring down a South Korea in the throes of a recession or at least he could extend his southern border before reluctantly agreeing to another truce.

Of course the problem is that the PRC doesn’t want to push him as it doesn’t want the regieme to collapse. Not  for philiantropic reasons you understand. it just doesn’t want to share a border with a western ally and it definitely doesn’t want that ally to have nukes. And Russia, well as always Russia is still seeing things in Cold War vision ie what is bad for the USA is good for us.

I don’t think that the DPRK is likely to launch a war. However there are certain caveats.

a, We don’t know if they’ve been building up warstocks

b, This could be part of a internal plot to secure Kim’s future and the chosing of his successor. It has to be remebered that there are some wingnut memeber sof the general staff who believe thatn they can still go to war.

c, if other players are helping out. Iran has had alot of contact with the DPRK esp with regards to tech transfers. So Irans up coming election may have a hand in this.

d, finally Kim may think the US can’t afford a fight so will keep ratcheting up the pressure..until something goes wrong and it takes a life of it’s own.

In conclusion we have to remember we are dealing with a leader who cares not a jot for others esp then lives of his subjects, and he is soemone who is used to getting his way. What will happen if we call his bluff?

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7 Responses to ““I’ll huff and I’ll puff and i’ll huff some more” Kim Jong-Il”

  1. Moko Says:

    He’s a nutter, but I think he’s like the crazy rich cousin that’s allowed to get away with certain things but comprehends the situation if he dicks around with everyone’s future.

    What’s his take on the future of Korea?. IS he staunchly commie with loyalties to that way of being or is he Seoul-ly – (lol sorry, couldn’t resist) in it for himself?.

  2. LERMONTOV Says:

    Yeah – very interesting problem. It is difficult to see the problem going away until China sees no use for Nth Korea as a buffer state. As you mention – Nth K’s interaction with Iran is also worrisome

  3. havock21 Says:

    Inclined to agree with Lerm, the issue of Nukes and what he has is the problem, I suspect any ground offensive on his part, would in all probability peter out fast, then be smashed where they have ground to a halt. then you could also wonder about, desertion rates, given the current state as well.

    But those big bang bombs…one or two even, if delivered and detonated…well, the game changes. What happens if he pops one or two, I see a war, where the south, supported by all, surges NTH, then you will have the PRC in a twist. Sound like old ground does it…YEP. All the makings of ugly

  4. yankeedog Says:

    We’ve gone through this with NK before. I suspect whoever’s in charge is looking for some ‘protection money’. A nice bribe, er, aid package, would I’m sure ease their troubled national pride.

    If the North launches an attack, the South will take a terrible pounding for a week or so, then the South will beat them around like a rented mule. The NK is using 1960s and 1970s best against some of the most advanced military in the world. I’d bet on the South Korea/Japan/US forces.

  5. Puma Says:

    You all seem unaware that Kim has suffered a series of debilitating strokes and is virtually incapacitated. It’s highly unlikely that he is behind this saber rattling. Or anything.

    Seoul is only 30 miles from the DMZ and the civilian casualties would be huge, probably in the tens of thousands. This is why one american admin after another, repub and democrat, have all looked at military options and never pursued them. We will need a long term solution that involves help from China and Russia.

  6. chazfh Says:

    Moko, He’s a kleptocrat no different than Mugabe or any of the african despots. The big differeance is that he’s never had to ask the populace for anything as he inherited his power form daddy

    Lerm, with increasign social pressures at home the PRC needs awkward squad members like the DPRK

    Havock, and thats the point, surely the High Command know that in the end their army’s going to attrite to hell in only a short period of time so nukes are the only way for them to proceed and that’ll mean transporting them by sea…

    YD, yes we’ve always paid kim for a few promises that he then breaks a few months down the line. I can’t see Obama going for it though. Any standard war is going to be pretty short lived. And so we have to ask ourselves how far before the DPRK blinks.

    Puma, and i’m sorry you KNOW this how? This is the whole problem no-one outside of the DPRK really knows whats going on and inside only a small amount of people know. This causes instability into the system. For all we know he’s dead or he could be recovering fine.

    I’m ore than well aware of the huge amount of weapons systems Seoul has been potential targeted by. In fact you’ve miscalculated by a factor of 10. Seoul has a population of over 10 million. If the North opened up and only fired for effect you’re looking at hundreds of tons of HE hitting it. The devastation would be massive. casulties would be in 100’s of 1000’s. Actually in the end neither Russia nor the PRC will help, aty least not in the way you mean. Russia’s foreign policy game plan is to obstruct most western foreign policy aims as they see themselves threatened by the west (nonsense but thats just Russian paranoia for you).

    As for the PRC it doesn’t want any western backed countries on it’s borders hence its overtures to the ‘Stan republics to remove any US bases. It’s currently shitting itself because of the new relationship between india and the west.

    The irony is that both the PRC and Russia still see the world from a coldwar viewppoint although they accuse the west of doing the same. This is because they just don’t understand how liberal democracies work.

    Basically all this hohah should die down and in a few years the DPRK will collapse in on itself. The cost to S korea will be large but on the whole less than if they have to go to war…Unfortunately the internal politcal games in the highest levels of the DPRK could easily mean that war occurs by accident.

  7. Puma Says:

    I’ve heard 3 different experts say he’s virtually incapacitated. Won’t argue the rest.

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