Don’t try and claim us Argentina..

(appols to Andrew lloyd webber)

History never repeats…..

Well only if we learn from our mistakes.

Unfortunately the Argentine Government has not and so nearly 30 years after the last rumble in the South Atlantic the battle lines are once more being drawn. Since the Junta was replaced with a democratic (but no less corrupt unfortunately) government the Argentineans have still maintained their ‘ownership’ of the Falkland Islands, South Georgia etc. Etc. but vowed to get their own way by Diplomatic means.

The history of these pretty forsaken islands is pretty murky but what is pretty clear is that the islands were first formally ‘claimed’ by the British and they left a plaque stating so. Other colonial countries including Spain and France had small settlements there at one stage or another but Spains formal claim was about a decade or so later than the Poms.

Once the Argentineans declared independence their 1st settlement was degraded by the Seppos. The Islands were formally annexed back in 1833 (ish) but there was no expulsion of the Argies therein in fact they were allowed to stay as long as they didn’t interfere with the crown colony. The irony being of course that many of them were from the British Isles in the first place!

So In reality the Argentineans claim to the Isles is thinner than the UK’s colonial claim, and the fact that the Islands are actually an independent province (UKIP) and the inhabitants don’t want to become Argentinean (as they are able to under the Argentinean constitution) it’s pretty much yah boo sucks to Buenos Aires.

Now considering how badly run Argentina is the question does rise how do they think they can improve the Falkland Islanders lives and governance? The answer is of course they can’t much except for improved communication links with continental South America.

The lasts stoush is about the FI having awarded an oil firm exploration rights to a potential oil field. Now I remember that Oil was always put forward as another excuse back in 1982 as a reason to defend a few million penguins and sheep. Investigations occurred in ’98 to little avail so I am pretty cynical as to the possibility of another North Sea reserve in the area. But it doesn’t take alot of cynicism to guess that potential oil riches might have raised the interest of Christina Fernandez de Kirchner as she is not popular at the moment and her government needs money desperately.

In the UK there is another unpopular government on it’s last legs.

So it is almost a re-run of 1982 with two countries with unpopular, almost broke governments one of which is due to go to the polls in the near future.

But let’s face it there is no way any British Government is going to make the Falkland Islanders become part of Argentina. So either Argentina accepts that or we get some blockades a stoush in the UN and then the Poms sending more troops and aircraft to break any Argentinean blockade which will lead to more Argentineans being killed than Poms. The Joker in the pack is of course everyone’s favourite joker Hugo Chavez who has pledged troops to the Argentina’s cause if there is a punch up. This adds a layer of complexity as IF there was another conflict or even war there is now a significant chance that the UK will invoke the NATO treaty and even just one CBG is lent by the yanks then the conflict would be even more one sided. If Hugo also got involved it would of course give the yanks a chance to remove him from power permanently.

However before any of that happens we have the Rio summit in Mexico unanimously siding with Argentina which i have no doubt will mean a few terse message flying from London to certain ex-colonies in the Caribbean.

In the end I find this very saddening as there is really little support in Argentina pushing for more territory that it can misrule, only maybe in the diseased minds of diehard Peronista’s, and this time if there was a bit of argy bargy the UK might actually declare war and then the gloves would be off. Much to the detriment of Argentina. What Argentina needs is a Gen X president to win the next election who is either a member of the Radical Party or an independent, and preferable someone who actually fought in the Falklands Conflict and therefore knows the futility of arguing over them. Then he could allow a plebiscite in the islands (which of course will be a vote for staying a UKIP) and a mutual development pact or something similar to develop oil fields in the region for both sides benefit.

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10 Responses to “Don’t try and claim us Argentina..”

  1. bangarrr Says:

    Saddening that it may happen again.

  2. Barnesm Says:

    My monies on the UK kicking Argentine Butt with few casualties this time.

  3. bondiboy66 Says:

    I’m with Barnes. There is a shitload of pommies with recent combat experience (albeit in warmer climes), and a lot of lessons learned from the last effort. The Argies would be rooted.

  4. chazfh Says:

    Bangar: What is annooying is that most educated Argentinians know that the last conflict was a big mistake and have little tastefor more conflict diplomatic or otherewise. The country has enough problems as it is.

    Barnes and BB66: Whilst the Argentine navy’s surface assets have been updated with MEKO vessels, their sub fleet is buggered and they have minimal amphib capability. Airforce is similarly out of date. The 4 typhoons currently based in the FI on paper could take down most strike assets in one sorte. Add into the mix cruise equiped ssn’s and it’s not going to end well.

    I see Hugo Chavez hand in this the problem is that his military’s kit is that which most British military equip is designed to defeat. Take into consideration that the Britsh military is now the most experienced since the late 40’s and it’s a war that Argentina and maybe Venezeula could lose badly. I can’t see Chile, Brazil, Peru or Columbia helping militarily so it’s not looking good.

  5. Therbs Says:

    The Argies must surely be jesting in even considering starting some nastiness. Sure, the Poms don’t have the same naval strength as in 82 but their assets are well up to dancing in the FI. As for Chavez, what a jerk. He’s becoming even nuttier as time passes.

  6. Dr Yobbo Says:

    No contest, and Team Arge knows it. It’s sabre rattling and not even particularly convincing at that.

  7. Dr Yobbo Says:

    Paraphrasing the Beeb http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8533860.stm

    The current Argentine government has ruled out any military action over the islands but is stepping up a diplomatic offensive to try to pressure London into negotiations. With elections due next year, the government cannot be seen to be dropping the country’s claim, especially if oil is found in large quantities.

    Not even sabre rattling – political pointscoring, and transparent, shit political pointscoring at that.

  8. chazfh Says:

    Dr Y: The PJ party are not too popular at the moment and Christina has alienated a number of key support groups eg the Farmers. Then she’s tried to force the reserve to use use it’s funds to pay off debt (against the constitution), so she needs every politcal point she can score.

    Unfortunately in gordon brown she’s facing a PM who knows he’s going to lose in a few months and if he were to treat the claim seriously the Labour Party would lose even more votes. Also With a Tory PM in waiting they will also tell Argentina where to jump to but with a very cultured Etonian accent!! Whislt the Rio group will give unspecified ‘support’ to the claim only Hugo and his mates in Equador and Bolivia will endganer their international relations by giving really solid support.

  9. miniburger Says:

    Your story is served Master Chaz
    http://miniburger.wordpress.com/2010/03/02/sur-la-plage-part-2-chaz-ww/

  10. chazfh Says:

    Thanks savo you’re a star

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